Towards a Set of IPCC SRES Urban Land-Use Scenarios: Modelling Urban Land-Use in the Madrid Region

摘要

The objectives of this study are to test the applicability of urban land use change models for the simulation of climate change scenarios for large re-gions and to define the future research needs in this topic. Specifically, the scenarios A1, A2 and B2 produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) have been used for the implementation of three urban land use scenarios in the Madrid region. A cellular automata-based model has been used for the modelling component of the experiment. The land use scenar-ios were developed for an area of about 10,000 km². This area includes about 340 municipalities of the Madrid Autonomous Community and other municipalities beyond it representing the functional region of Madrid. The IPCC SRES emissions scenarios were used to produce the storylines de-scribing the narrative socio-economic and political conditions that will drive future land use change. The scenarios produced cover the period 2000-2040. CORINE land use datasets were used as input data into the model. This European-wide dataset creates the possibility of modelling large European areas using a single implementation of the model. This ap-proach opens new possibilities for the assessment of the impacts of urban land use development (e.g., transport needs, increasing exposure to natural hazards, impacts from climate change, urban sprawl).